Oded Balaban

Oded Balaban — University of Haifa — balaban@research.haifa.ac.il

A reply to a friend

A friend living in Argentina argued to me that a minority government would not hold. In his view it depends on the support of the Arab parties from the outside, and they have no interests in common. This was my answer.

You are mixing two things. The first is that none of the government’s supporters should have an interest in bringing it down in the votes in which it can fall: the no-confidence vote and the budget vote. The second is agreement on every measure the government takes. Support from the outside needs only the first. The second is possessed by no coalition, not even the most homogeneous. And the first interest does exist.

On social matters the agreement is broad

Budgets for the Arab municipalities, the fight against organized crime, which claims dozens of lives a year in Arab towns, the cost of living, housing and civic equality. On all of these the Arab parties agree with any centrist government that replaces Netanyahu’s.

The four issues you are afraid of do not divide

You asked about the settlements, about Trump, about Jerusalem and about Gaza.

The settlements. Such a government would oppose the settlements that are not legal even under Israeli law, and would support evacuating those that Netanyahu’s government established. That is what the Arab parties want, and here the agreement is complete.

Trump. The policy of Netanyahu’s government towards Trump changes every week and has no clear line. On a matter with no line there is no way to split. Besides, most of the partners in such a government are close to the moderate positions of the American Democratic Party.

Jerusalem. Nobody proposes dividing the city. Nor is there any negotiation at present, and there will be none while the Palestinian Authority remains as corrupt as it is today. An issue that is not on the table does not divide. And when it does reach the table, within the framework of a peace agreement, there will be no proposal to divide the city, because a divided city is no guarantee of peace.

Gaza. Israeli Arabs do not support Hamas. Gadi Eisenkot, chairman of the Yashar! party, proposes compelling Hamas to hand over its weapons, with the active support of Egypt, Jordan and Europe, and turning it into a party within a democratic Palestinian Authority. There is no reason for the Arab parties to oppose that.

A military operation does not bring a government down

Your main fear is security. Suppose the government decides on a military operation, and an Arab member of the Knesset, whose family is in the West Bank, finds it hard to support it. That is understandable. But a military operation is decided by the cabinet, not by the Knesset. And if the decision reaches the Knesset, the right-wing opposition will vote in favor. The opposition in Israel accuses governments of doing too little, not of doing too much. So the Arab member can vote against or be absent, and the government will not be in danger. A government falls in a no-confidence vote or in the budget vote. In those votes the interest of the Arab parties is clear: that Netanyahu should not return to power with partners hostile to Arabs. Precisely in the field of security, which looks like the government’s weak point, the government is protected, because the opposition itself sustains it.

The conscription law will pass by a large majority

When the state was founded, Ben-Gurion exempted some four hundred yeshiva students from military service, so that Torah study, all but erased by the Holocaust, would continue. The exemption for a few became, over the years, an exemption for tens of thousands. Today whole cohorts of young ultra-Orthodox men do not serve, while the secular and the religious Zionists serve three years and then many years in the reserves.

The Supreme Court ruled again and again that the blanket exemption is illegal and discriminatory. The Tal Law of 2002 tried to regulate the matter, and the Court struck it down in 2012. Since then there has been no valid arrangement. On 25 June 2024 the Court ordered that yeshiva students be drafted and that funding stop for the yeshivot of those of service age. A law setting enlistment targets, with sanctions for whoever fails to meet them, was never passed, because Netanyahu depends on Shas and on United Torah Judaism, and they block it. During the war, with reservists called up again and again, the situation became unbearable.

A government supported by the Arab parties will pass that law. The ultra-Orthodox will oppose it. But a large part of the right will support it. Avigdor Lieberman made equality of burden his banner, and in 2019 he refused to join Netanyahu’s government over the conscription law. Many Likud voters want the ultra-Orthodox to serve as their own children serve. In this law the common interest stretches from the Arab parties to the secular right. Outside it there remain only those who benefit from the exemption.

The friction will come from the right, not from the Arab parties

I am not describing a government without friction. There will be friction, but not from the side you fear. It will come from Lieberman and from members of Naftali Bennett’s party. But protesting is not wanting to bring the government down. Whoever brings it down will return power to Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, and none of the partners will want that. Fear of the alternative will hold the government together more than any agreement.

It has happened before

Yitzhak Rabin got the Oslo II agreement through the Knesset in October 1995, by 61 to 59. It was a security matter of the first order, and his government rested on outside support from Hadash and the Arab Democratic Party, “the blocking bloc.” In 2021 Ra’am, Mansour Abbas’s party, sat in a coalition. It was the first time in the history of the state that an independent Arab party was part of a coalition. What you claim cannot work has already worked.